19 Ocak 2010 Salı

SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE WEST....

Recently, I have underlined Turkish defense minister Vecdi Gönül's speech during Israeli defense minister Barak's visit. As it was remembered, he has announced Turkey and Israel as "strategic allies". And aforementioned in the last article, there was a contradiction in Gönül's comment why current Turkish pro Islamic government seems to be most problematic cabinet with Israel, on the other hand this approach is the most intensive evaulation on Turkish-Israeli relations. The tangible point, bilateral relations stands on alignment base.
Beside these developments, Israel's military intelligence chief Major General Amos Yadlin alleged that, "Turkey no longer needs a close relationship with Israel".

Jonathan Lis, "Turkey no longer needs a close relationship with Israel", Haaretz, January 19, 2010.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1143701.html

According to Yadlin, Turkey's main crossroad includes "a fundamental process of moving further away from the secular Ataturk approach, closer to a radical approach."
He concerns EU's negative approach about full membership to Turkey creates a cold shoulder effect on the country. So Turkey's attitude especially with AKP government, seeks to be closer with the Middle Eastern regimes.
But we must ask that "which Middle Eastern regimes?". There is a political divide for the region. One side indicates pro American moderate Islamic regimes like Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon (not totaly), Saudi Arabia. The other side is related Iranian-Syrian alliance.
Turkey progressed relations with Iran and Syria. Turkish-Syrian relations is not in spite of US because US tries to isolate Iran in the region. However, Turkish-Iranian closer relations is questionable. Iran's challenge to the Western countries has a potential to convert a conflict. It does not mean necessarily a hot conflict. Even though, include embargo there can be some sanctions to Iran related uranium enrichment plan. Turkey is currently temporary member of UN Security Council. As it is known, Turkish FM Davutoğlu consider "zero problem with neighbors". It is a sympathetic slogan. But if all permanent member of Security Council's members endorse sanctions on Iran, what would Turkey do? We mean without veto situation would Turkey find any explanation about her attitude. As we remember, Turkey voted impartial in IAEA meeting about sanctions on Iran.
The problems about Islamic republic is not about producing nuclear weapon but also having proxy forces in Lebanon with Hizballah and in Gaza with Hamas.
Turkey's approach to Hamas in the context of AKP's cabinet is distressful. Social chaos in Gaza does not legitimate Hamas. Hamas realized a coup in 2007 and captured Gaza Strip unilaterally. Hamas cut Gaza's ties from the rest of the world except Iran-Syria. Turkey officially recognizes Palestine Authority why it was founded with international treaties, Israel also signed them. It is related Oslo process. In addition to this, AKP's ideological behaviour, structurally closer with Hamas. They criticize Fatah and Fatah's moderate approach to Israel. But in fact, Turkish Foreign Policy's main axis can not carry pro Hamas perceiving.
The similar situation is also about Hizballah. AKP's relations with Lebanese PM Hariri is so significant. Turkish Telekom's main partner is from Hariri's firm. At the same time Hariri is coalition partner with Hizballah. But it is not a volunteer partnership.
Turkish approach to Iraq is encouraged by US to sustain and recognize Kurdistan Regional Government (according to Iraq constitution). There is a potential to clash with Iran in Iraq for Turkey. In that, Iran sees Southern Iraq in her dominance.
Turkey's shifting away from the West becomes a main fear for the West. EU's policies about accession process structured a frustration for Turkish people. Public criticism on EU feeded anti Western masses also US invasion to Iraq reinforced the situation. Turkish public opinion is shaked with July 4, 2003 "sack crisis".
Israeli general's statement to indicate Turkey's membership to NATO lost her strategic importance for Turkey and Turkey does not need to progress her relations with Israel to show it to US and the other European countries.
Turkish people become more conservative and it effects Turkish Foreign Policy's applications. In spite of the events, Turkey is still in Western associations.
Rapid political Islamisation's influence is being felt in public sphere and current government's "strategic depth" policy tries to found a regional periphery, with a greater country.
But with which great country?
We can respond: USA

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