27 Mart 2010 Cumartesi

ERDOGAN'S CHALLENGE IN ARAB LEAGUE

Turkish PM Erdogan challenged to Israel during Arab League which is being held in Libya's city of Sirte.
Erdogan specially urges Israel for new settlements in Jerusalem, to give up announcing Jerusalem as united capital and declare tombs in east Jerusalem as Israeli cultural heritage. Turkish PM also stated that, Islamic countries never recognize Jerusalem as Israel's united capital. According to him, Israeli policies can be evaulated with the "madness" word.
Turkish pro Islamic government is living problems in domestic policies. New constitution offer to be rejected by opposition parties, trade unions and some NGO's. However, AKP tried to describe new offers as EU democratization process to Turkish public opinion. Plus, used "referendum tool" to press opposition. But the fact about new offers is clearly known, to press secular high judiciary. Despite AKP's plans, opinion polls show, new constitutional changes can be rejected with a 61% majority. Beside the situation, some of AKP's MP's, started to declare their negative attitudes to new offers.
In this context, pro Islamic government, applies foreign policy to gain new votes in Turkey. Neo Ottoman approach generally is concerned about AKP's propaganda.
Erdogan's anti Israel discourse is parallel with Obama's administration in US. Even though, there is a cold ambiance with Turkey and US related Armenian resolution from US Congress (House of Representatives International Relations Committee).
Turkish PM uses the high tension between US-Israel governments. Obama's behaviour to Israeli PM during Netenyahu's White House visiting, reinforced the process.
New Middle East peace process is encouraged by Obama, but Israeli government's policies and resolutions break US president's plans.
The important point, Arab League's general secretary Amr Moussa, urged Arab countries about Iran's efforts to make nuclear weapon. And Arab League is preparing a regional iniatative which would include non Arab countries (Turkey and Iran)
Erdogan's challenge is intensively related AKP's political situation. His approach to nuclear Iran, can be observed in his discourse.
But application is sensitive. If Turkey does not conform any UN sanctions or US demands to nuclear Iran, there can be constructional problems with her allies. So Erdogan's policy to Iran seems to be harder than to Israel.

18 Mart 2010 Perşembe

ISRAEL-US TENSION

The year of 2009, became new administrations' taking office in US and Israel. Barack Obama started his presidency in January 20, 2009. In Israel; February 10, 2009 elections created a coalition environment as usual. Kadima concluded the race as a first party, on the other hand Likud raised her votes. Likud was fourth party in 2006, but in 2009 deployed as a second party.
Tzipi Livni who was the foreign minister and chairwoman of Kadima, was more popular than Netenyahu in the Western countries. However, Netenyahu founded the new government with far Right parties plus Labor Party.
Israel Beytinu's leader Lieberman was deputy PM about strategic relations in Olmert's cabinet, he was appointed as a new foreign minister in Netenyahu's government. Ehud Barak who is the leader of Labor Party kept his situation as a defense minister in new administration.
Obama seemed closer with Islamic world and there were suspicions on him from neo cons in US and Israel. Despite Obama's reason, Netenyahu's government used more radical discourse than Olmert. Middle East Peace Process was suspended in new era and Annapolis Peace Process was forgotten.
Netenyahu government has taken a base from previous cabinet with Operation Cast Lead. And preferred to freeze the peace process.
Netenyahu supported new settlements in West Bank. Recently Israel's interior minister announced new 1600 buildings in West Bank during US Vice President Biden's visiting to Israel. It raised the tension for bilateral relations.
Beside these developments, Israel announced about two tombs to belong to Israel's cultural heritage and opened a historical synagogue just near Al Aksa mosque.
Netenyahu has declared several times, "an independent Palestine air space would be controlled by Israel, West Bank-Jordan border would be defended by IDF.
And also rejects to negotiate Jerusalem's situation and refugees returning to Palestine.
The photograph weakened Fatah in West Bank and strenghened Hamas' position in Gaza Strip.
But there is a point which must not be forgotten. It is Iran.
Iran's nuclear program could shake the regions' balances. US does not want a possible Israel's unilateral intervention to Iran. However, underlines Iran's situation and running the anti Iran campaign about nuclear Iran.
Iran is the key of US-Israeli relations and the Middle East's future.

7 Mart 2010 Pazar

WHAT IS GOING ON "IN TURKEY"?

Recently, there are some articles on Turkey's political chaos. Especially, Soner Çağaptay and Daniel Pipes' comments reflected the situation about Turkey. Newsweek underlined Turkey's reason as "army is beaten" statement.
In fact, "what is going on in Turkey?"
From 1999, Turkey became an offical candidate for EU membership. Consequently, EU accession process started for Turkey. It means new EU adoption applications began to form Turkish politics.
Bülent Ecevit was the PM during the event. Turkey has lived a convulsive economic crisis in 2001. And "transition program to substantial economy was concerned." It meant that, a very hard economic-social policy against middle and lower classes. Why financial balances and public depth were alarmed. And new program came to agenda with IMF stand-by agreement. Kemal Derviş who was the vice chairman of World Bank was appointed to deputy PM about economic relations.
So, hard program was applicated successfully however middle and lower classes declined with coalition government.
On November 3 2002, Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the elections and gained 34% of votes.
AKP was fragmented from Milli Görüş movement. In February 28, 1997 Turkish army pressed for a radical change in National Security Council about National Security Policy Paper. Reactionism (irtica) means religious fundamentalism as a main threat for national security beside ethnic seperatism.
Necmettin Erbakan was the PM and chairman of Welfare Party (RP). Turkish Armed Forces intervened to the politics indirectly. Briefings to the media and high judicial instutions was given by Turkish army about irtica.
Erbakan had to resign from PM in June 1997. And was banned from politics. Erbakan's opposition in RP, started a challenge why he has fought with the West. Firstly "innovators" in Virtue Party challenged to Erbakan's approach which was founded instead of RP and determined a candidate for leadership. He was Abdullah Gül. FP gained 15% in 1999. And was the main opposition. FP was closed in 2001. Erbakan's friends continued with Felicity Party (SP). But Erdoğan's political team deployed in Justice and Development Party (AKP). Erdoğan was the charismatic mayor of Istanbul and was prisoned about a poem in 1998. He was punished for 3 months and became the other "banned leader". Supported Gül in FP.
At last, AKP was founded in 2001, in 2002 elections Erdoğan couldn't become a candidate for MP. Republican People's Party cooperated with AKP for constitutional change and Erdoğan was elected in mid-term elections as MP and founded new government in 2003 after Gül. The time was after March 1 crisis. Turkish parliament rejected US' demands for using Turkish territory for invading Iraq.
July 4, 2003 "sack crisis" was an another step about Turkish-US crisis. It was the operation to Turkish soldiers from US soldiers in Northern Iraq. Despite crisis, Bush administration collaboreted with AKP government in the name of "Moderate Islam".
US planned Turkish pro Islamic government to be ahead on pro western Arab regimes such as Lebanon, Jordan and the others.
AKP used first term (2002-2007) with EU plus IMF anchor. EU process eventually changed army's situation in Turkey. On the other hand, AKP manipulated the reason for her benefits. Army's role in politics is not resourced only from Republican or Ottoman history. It was about 2218 years. Turkish state tradition began with founding the army.
Some commenters concern only Republican process. Founder of Turkey Republic Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and his friends were mostly officers. Atatürk preferred a modern state after National Liberation War. Main target was to reach democracy. After Atatürk, in 1946 Turkey passed to multi party system, it indicated Turkey to be deployed in the Western axis.
In Cold War era, Turkish army realized 3 coups and February 28. Interventions were parallel with US foreign policies.
AKP also has some ultra liberals supports. But the main contradiction, AKP's objection to found a new society. Some ultra liberal elites do not care the situation. September 12 1980 military coup pressed the leftists but to strength religious groups against communism. It was about green belt policy with parallel US, just like Pakistan's Ul Hak. General Ul Hak and General Evren behaved similar. Both of them gave compromises to religious policies. Fethullah Gülen bargained with General Evren to determine his supporter's to vote to the new constitution.
AKP, reversed its second term without EU anchor. After Bush, Obama concerned "model partnership" during his visit to Turkey. He has demanded Armenian and Kurdish openings from Turkish government.
AKP's second term sustained more agressively. Turkish PM Erdoğan challenged to Israeli president Peres to criticize Operation Cast Lead in January 2009. But Turkey was facilitator until December 2008 between Israel and Syria.
From June 2007, Ergenekon case caused several arrests of academicians, officers. Balyoz case, arrested top military officials in February 2010.
AKP is fighting with army and high judiciary.
2011 elections is the main cornerstone for new plans. AKP expects to change the constitution in the context of EU, but main agenda includes to convert to parliamentary system to presidency system. New system's content can be completed with a new Middle East Federation which would give up nation state, secularism and Turkishness and to build an infrastructure as Muslim brotherhood. Moderate or radical Islam?
The main problem is Iran. AKP tries to get a balance among US and Iran. And new cooperation in Northern Iraq, underlines Sunni Muslim brotherhood. It could be against Iran's Shia position.
If we summarize, Turkey was used as a labaratory by Western powers. Currently, I read some evaulations as "Turkey is shifting away from the West."
Anticommunism feeded fundamentalist and antisecular movements during the Cold War.
Solution is nor militar neither civil dictatorships.
Turkey's NATO membership, EU accession process and membership to European Council stays on the table. Relations with Russia, China or regional countries is natural in post cold war era. But not an alternative to the Western axis for Turkey. Graham Fuller's approach is not substantial and he praises Fethullah Gülen. His book which is called New Turkey Republic declares the real agenda which is related to build more conservative and antiwestern society.
In spite of the situation, AKP government has intensive relations with US.
An antiwestern infrastructure and pro western superstructure.
Is it realistic?