29 Haziran 2010 Salı

OBAMA PLAYS A GAMBLE ON TURKISH-ISRAELI RELATIONS

Obama administration plays some gambles in the Middle East. After Obama's presidency, new government planned a new version of "Arab peace plan". And Jordan's king Abdullah was promoted by new US president. Revised plan could not have concluded. Especially, Netenyahu's government disturbed Obama's policies why new Israeli cabinet included radical parties. For instance Lieberman became new foreign minister of Israel.
Israeli cabinet rejected many offers from Obama. Even Netenyahu's administration planned new settlements and did not approach to new peace plans.
Obama did not prefer to clash with Israel directly. So pro islamic AKP government seemed very attractive for "Democratic government"s policies. Erdogan started with "one minutes" event for anti Israeli discourse.
In 2009 there were many crisis between Turkey and Israel.
(drill crisis, serie crisis, in 2010 lower sofa crisis and so on..)
And at last Turkey and Israel clashed in the Eastern Mediterranean on date of May 31, 2010.
According to Obama's mind, an NATO ally's attempt to break Israel's Gaza blockade could be effective.
However these approaches only legitimized political Islam in Turkey and in the region.
Recently Erdogan and Obama met in Canada.
After the meeting, Erdogan declared to Charlie Rose from PBS TV, "Turkey still friend to Israel".. However, he challenged to Israeli government and told that, "Netenyahu government is the biggest barrier to peace". He added that, there must be an opportunity to Hamas why it won the elections.

ynet, "Erdogan: Turkey still friend to Israel", June 29, 2010. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3912596,00.html

Obama's trend facilitated AKP's pro islamic utopias. Erdogan projected Turkish FM Prof.Davutoglu's "problem solver" and "founding order" policies.
"Changing Israeli government" and "to become Hamas as full Palestine's government" is the new mission of AKP.
Erdogan's approach welcomes a new adventure....
There are new missions to AKP government from Obama administration. But Obama's style is very problematic. Turkish-Israeli relations reached a very risky point and Obama administration's policies built it. Obama plays a gamble. He uses pro islamic AKP to press Israeli government. And new environment encourages Erdogan to challenge in the Middle East. That's why I underline the adventure.
Obama's gamble could damage pro western axis in the Middle East and Iran's approach would gain from US appeasement policies.
Israel's cabinet can be critiziced or US policies can try to compress her strategic ally. But using AKP government for changing Israeli government is a gamble. Cabinets can change but Turkish-Israeli relations' long term vision is effected from Obama's gamble.

9 Haziran 2010 Çarşamba

TURKEY'S VOTE IN UN SECURITY COUNCIL...

Turkey voted against sanctions on Iran's "uranium enrichemt program". The behaviour is the indicator of Turkish cabinet's approach to Iran. As it is remembered, Turkey and Brazil cooperate with Iran to prevent probabl sanctions from UN. The three countries prepared a "trilateral declaration" and "swap of uranium deal" in May 17.
Turkey's vote was expected why Turkey kept her position with Brazil about uranium swapping and declaration.
Recently, Turkey lived a crisis with Israel and her 9 citizens were killed in "Gaza flotilla". Israel is criticized harshly however, sending flotilla to Gaza is considered. Iran supported AKP's discourse.
Turkish-Iranian relations is very problematic for Western countries. AKP's efforts for breaking pressures on Iran failed.
For Turkey, has a sympathy to Hamas in Palestine and has a sympathy to Hizballah in Lebanon, have also contradictions with Arab regimes.
The all policies from AKP show to support Iran and Iran's periphery.
China and Russia urge countries to obey sanctions against Iran.
AKP's foreign policy reach to a dead end. Pro Iranian approach has no provision for Turkey's foreign policy.
AKP's behaviour is not only against US policies but also Russia and China. It means a conflict with "international order".
Can it be commented as a second "March 1" crisis? It can be harder why obeying sanctions would be absolutely expected from Turkey.

6 Haziran 2010 Pazar

ERDOGAN'S STRATEGY TOWARDS A MIDDLE EASTERN ANXIETY...

Turkish PM Erdogan's Konya speech was very significant.(June 4, 2010) He has declared that, "Hamas is not a terror organization". This declaration was a challenge to Western axis especially US. In the same day, Fethullah Gülen (Turkish cleric and called as Turkish imam) who has a worlwide social network and also has a hegemony on Turkish politics and bureaucracy, urged AKP government indirectly. He has reminded that, before Gaza flotilla's moving fom Turkish coasts, there must have been a permission from Israeli authorities. Gülen told, IHH's show can be commented as political targets. Fethullah Gülen's explanations indicated that, these aids can be realized with Israeli cooperation and could be silent.
Hizballah held a meeting in Beirut and supported Erdogan government. Hasan Nasrallah who is General secretary of Hizballah criticized Arab leaders and praised Erdogan. Erdogan was praised by Hamas leaders in Gaza and Damascus too.
Erdogan cabinet's tendency to Iranian nuclear studies is known. AKP's targets reach to Hizballah and Hamas which are proxy forces of Iran in the Middle East. However Erdogan's approach clash with Arab leaders. AKP makes its political investments to Hamas. But what about Fatah?

Hamas blames Egypt and lauds Erdogan's administration.
Washington Post reminds that, Turkey is NATO member and US ally. In the article, AKP-IHH relation is questioned and IHH-Hamas ties are considered.

Washington Post, "Turkey's Erdogan bears responsibility in flotilla fiasco", June 5, 2010.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/04/AR2010060404806.html

NY Times urges that "Turkey's rhetoric go way so far".

NY Times, "Turkey's Fury", June 4, 2010. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/05/opinion/05sat2.html?scp=1&sq=Turkey+is+understandably+furious+about+Israel%E2%80%99s+disastrous+attack+on+the+Turkish-flagged+aid+ship%2C%22&st=cse

Turkey can behave with Iran until to which date.. In each day, rhetoric's content creates an anxiety to Western countries.
Obama administration failed on the Middle East. Is US losing Turkey? Also EU's demands legitimated AKP's policies...
According to Al-Mustaqbal newspaper Erdogan would go Gaza with a flotilla and Turkish navy?
Being a "new Nassir" requires some costs... The cost is not only related with Turkey but also Western axis in the Middle East.