“IRAN CRISIS"&TURKEY’S ROLE

[DEBATING SECURITY: CHANGES AND CHALLENGES FOR TURKEY”
22 - 23 October 2010,Istanbul
My paper was in Working Group 2 Turkey and Regional Politics: Country-Specific Analysis. Title of my paper: "Iran crisis & Turkey's role in the Middle East" Schedule: October 23, 09:00-11:00 Held by: Arı Movement, Bahçeşehir University, Friedrich Naumann Stiftung]


Iran’s foreign policy has classical allegations to the Middle East. Before Islamic Republic, some policies were also valid for Iran. Iran has two related approaches in the region. First of all, Shiah card is useful for Iran, on the other hand, Iran also manipulates some societies as “Persian”. Kurds are one of the sample. Shah supported Kurds against to Iraq central government during “1962-1975 rebellion” why Iraq became closer with Soviet Union after 1958 military coup. However, US encouraged Iran to sign “Algeria agreement” with Iraq in 1975 because Iraq was approaching to Western axis. Iran sustains to use Shiah card after Islamic Republic. Iran has gained “a new influence area” after Gulf Wars. Southern Iraq’s situation became a pro Iranian zone in the Gulf.
I. Lebanon War (1982) was a starting point of Hizballah’s challenge in Lebanon. II.Gulf War (2003) also strengthened Iran to have a periphery in Iraq. Hamas’ coup in Gaza (2007) gave a prize to Iran for manipulating Gaza entity. There is an interesting point, Hamas is Sunni. But Hamas’ sectarian structure is not a problem for Islamic Republic. The main cause is related Iran’s challnge. Especially Iran is trying to attract Arab populations with using anti semitic and anti western populist discourse. Currently Iran has proxy forces in Lebanon, Gaza Strip and Southern Iraq.
In this context Iran has a greater infrastructure which occupies a geography from Eastern Mediterranean to Gulf. So US-Iran clash occurres in the Middle East. Islamic Republic underlines some cooperations with Russia and China. Also Iran is an observer in Shangai Cooperation Organization. Iran’s president Ahmedinejad has met leader of Venezuela several times. Firstly, we will touch Iran’s influence zone in the Middle East, after concern nuclear issues and political effects.

IRAN’S GREATER INFLUENCE ZONE
Iran must not be evaulated with only “uranium enrichment plan”. It’s a important tool. But firstly, political content of Iran’s approach must be undestood. Iran’s political activities reach to Southern Iraq, Lebanon and some of the Gulf states; which was called as “Shiah crescent”. Beside the situation, Iran’s influence to Iraq, after 2011, would create a competition on Iraq. Main competitors are Iran and US. Beside these developments, Lebanon’s situation seems to be hard in the near future. Hizballah founded a tangible “state within state” in Lebanon. Iran’s influence to Lebanon could be realized with Syria’s support. In this context Turkey’s policies to Syria is parallel with US policies. US policies target to isolate Iran. But Iran’s challenge to Eastern Meditarranean has two wings. In Lebanon, Hizballah’s “state within state” creates Hizballahistan and Hamas’ policies in Gaza Strip concludes with a Hamasistan. Hizballahistan-Hamasistan axis is not only against Israel but also against moderate Arab regimes. So Iran challenges to Israel, moderate Arab regimes and consequently Western axis in the Middle East. Turkish pro Islamic government activities can be commented with some diplomatic efforts to Iran or Hamas. But mostly main route about Turkish Foreign Policy to conform US strategies. However Turkey voted against sanctions on Iran's "uranium enrichment program". The behaviour is the indicator of Turkish cabinet's approach to Iran. As it is remembered, Turkey and Brazil cooperated with Iran to prevent probabl sanctions from UN. The three countries prepared a "trilateral declaration" and "swap of uranium deal" in May 17.
Turkey's vote was estimated why Turkey kept her position with Brazil about uranium swapping and declaration.
Recently, Turkey lived a crisis with Israel and her 9 citizens were killed in "Gaza flotilla". Israel is criticized harshly on the other hand sending flotilla to Gaza is considered. Iran supported Turkish government’s discourse.
Turkish-Iranian relations is very problematic for Western countries. Turkey’s efforts which targeted to break pressures on Iran failed.
For Turkey, having a sympathy to Hamas in Palestine and to having a sympathy to Hizballah in Lebanon, include also contradictions with Arab regimes.
The all of the policies from Turkish administration seem to support Iran and Iran's periphery.
China and Russia urge countries to obey sanctions against Iran.
Current Turkish foreign policy reach to a dead end. Pro Iranian approach has no provision for Turkey's foreign policy.
The behaviour is not only against US policies but also Russia and China. It means a conflict with "international order".
Can it be commented as a second "March 1" crisis? It can be harder why obeying sanctions would be absolutely expected from Turkey.
Hamasistan-Hizballahistan axis from Lebanon to Gaza Strip is a real problem about pro western relations. Aforementioned axis is related with Iran. Iran as we told, has an influence zone from Southern Iraq to Eastern Mediterranean and Caucus. One of the approach from Iran to Caucus concludes closer relations with Armenia but colder relations with Azerbajcan. Iran’s Azerbajcan region became a main problem for Iran after Azerbajcan’s independence. Iran also tries to manipulate Azerbajcan with Shiah card.
“NUCLEAR IRAN” ISSUE
Iran's "uranium enrichment program" is significant why it has occupied the agenda of world public opinion. "Iran" issue is highlighted again and it is brought to the agenda format.
Iran's nuclear activities’ "peaceful" purposes is suspected. US and Western countries meanwhile Russia and China questions Islamic Republic’s targets. U.S. and Israel highlighted Iran's "nuclear studies to make nuclear weapons” since for a long time. “Dialogue with Iran" was considered by U.S. President Obama during G-20 summit October 1 2009 meeting. He has made a joint press conference with the French president, Sarkozy and former British Prime Minister Brown. Obama made a speech in the name of the three leaders and he especially underlined, the UN Security Council permanent members and Germany (5 +1) expected "tangible progress" from Iran.
IAEA condemned Iran to plan nuclear weapons in November 2009. After the resolution Islamic Republic exercised new long range missiles which have capability over 2000 km. . For instance Iran has done one of them in December 2009. Siccil 2 missiles was announced by Iran’s state run TV which is broadcasted in language of Arabic . It’s capacity reach to Israel and Southeastern Europe. Iran is perceived as a “pivotal” country and can attract a wide range region militarily. If nuclear warheads would be added to these missiles, Iran’s allegations may be commented very differently. It does not mean that Islamic Republic challenge to only the Middle East but to Center Asia and Southern Caucaus. With these developments Gulf Cooperation Council decided to found a joint military force in the region at the same time. (December 2009).
U.S. President and European leaders reflected a common attitude. Russian president Medvedev informed Obama that “heavy sanctions" to Iran is concerned. U.S. is planning to deploy the "missile shield" project in Poland and Czech Republic. Russia’s approach to Iran is also related to prevent missile shields in those countries why the issue can be related with themselves.
Turkish prime minister also visited Iran in October 2009. "Efforts to persuade" to Iran about nuclear issue can be observed in Turkey. Turkey’s Iran policy clash with the Western axis. Iran can gain time with these efforts. In this context “shifting away from the Western axis” is considered for Turkey.

SYRIAN FACTOR FOR IRAN’S REGIONAL HEGEMONY

Turkish foreign minister’s book which is called "Strategic Depth" indicates that Turkey can found a regional periphery with a great power. The great power may be concerned as US. He has found an opportunity to practice his ideas.
In this context, Turkish-Syrian rapprochement does not clash with the United States. Since the September 2008 New York meetings, US-Syrian dialogue is developed. Delegations from the U.S. Congress visited Assad two times, then Obama’s Middle East special envoy Mitchell was sent to Assad , and also US embassy in Syria which was closed since 2005 reopened in June 2009. Syria is becoming closer to the axis of the West, but also keep her alliance with Iran. US strategy plan to isolate Iran politically. In this backdrop, the Syrian-Israeli talks were facilitated by Turkey but the talks were suspended in December 2008 related Israel’s Operation Cast Lead to Hamas’ entity in Gaza.
Syria-Iran alliance is realized in Lebanon. Lebanon's Shiite alliance, the most prominent component of this alliance and Hizballah, in a sense, the presence of Syria's, arising from its alliance with Iran to the logistical and political support owed. At the point reached today, Hizballah, in Lebanon, has become a phenomenon in itself. However, Syria lack of a source in the medium term may cornered Hizballah, Iran also "well into his shell" can be taken.
About the press, allegedly developed under the leadership of Turkey, Turkey-Syria-Iraq rapprochement or, in fact, still is an extension of U.S. policy. Now Iraq is ally of US. And the Iraqi government, made a harsh warning to Syria, not to deploy "terrorist groups" in her land. So, Turkey's "neo ottoman" approach, to use initiative, consists of a fantasy. In Turkish foreign minister Davutoğlu’s "Strategic Depth" book, his claims are met. Prof.Davutoğlu underlined Turkey behave with a great power’s "shadow" , to be "regional power", but such moves are not available to more than subcontracting.
Let come Patriots. What does Iran say? "Do not take Patriots, we are your friends". "Enforcement of the" slowdown is likely these days, the Organization of Islamic Conference Secretary-General Prof..Dr.Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, warned the Western world with the following words. "In the invasion of Iraq, weapons of mass destruction cause was manifest. Now we do not create a reason the case for Iran." (Turkish cabinet to choose, with the logic to explain and boasts its own compasses.)
A possible military options against Iran comes to the agenda. The Middle Eastern Order is under threat of militant organizations. Generally we underline Iranian influence in the Middle East (ME) against Western relations. Especially Hizballah-Hamas line transformed as a pro- Iranian front and target Israel in the region and Western vision.
In August 2010, Syrian president Assad and Saudi king Abdullah visited Lebanon together. It indicates a crisis in the country. Why UN prosecution committee would announce indictment about Hariri assassination and there are some allegations that Hizballah is blamed in it. The main question is related the situation if there can be a new tension between Sunni and Shiite masses. On the other hand, Hizballah founded a Hizballahistan and Sunni PM Hariri the junior expressed his trust to Hizballah to defend his country from Israel. It also to give his country's sovereignty to Hizballah or at least to share Lebanon with Hizballah.
Saudi king supports Hariri and came to Lebanon with Assad to prevent any sectarian clash in the country. Syrian approach to Lebanon can be considered to patronize Amal and Hizballah. Amal is pro Syrian but Hizballah is pro Iranian and it is the symbol of Syrian-Iranian alliance.
As it is known Israel and Jordan were striked by rockets today (August 2, 2010). The interesting point, rockets were launched from Egypt. But Egypt did not realize the attacks. It is wondered that who striked Israel's Eliat and Jordan's Aqaba?
And there is one more entity strikes Israel. The entity is Hamas' Gaza Strip. Or the other name is Hamasistan..
A common approach is expected from regional countries and global actors against to militant organizations. And Iran’s main policy is related with the militant organizations.

CONCLUSION: TURKEY’S ROLE APPEASE IRAN?
Turkey is ally of USA, member of NATO, in EU accession process and member of European Council. These base is evaulated as associational alliance relations. We mean Turkey’s deployment in Western axis.
Iran’s approach to Turkey is going further with pro Islamic Turkish government’s political trends. Rapid conservatisation of Turkish masses facilitate Turkish-Iranian relations. However, Turkey is urged by EU and USA to keep Western position to Iran, especially nuclear issues. Turkish prime minister signed agreement with Iran includes natural gas and committed to develop bilateral economic relations’ volume.
Obama’s approach facilitates Turkish-Syrian, Turkish-Iranian relations which target to make dialogue with these countries. On the other hand Islamic Republic’s nuclear issue and proxy forces in Lebanon and Gaza Strip create main barriers. Also, Syria’s situation still sustain to send logistic support to these territories.
Iran’s most important strategy would occur in the Southern Iraq. Iraq’s Shia majority got the power and sectarian connections gave a determinance to Iran. KRG’s position will be considered with Turkey why they are in the Western axis. Current close approaches between Iran and Turkey is not realistic. After 2011, Turkey and Iran can become main competitors in Iraq.
Iran tries to break her isolation. Turkey’s efforts in the Middle East could conclude contradictions with pro western Sunni Arab regimes. Beside Turkey’s attitude, Iran’s approach to Turkey can not be like Syria. Syrian-Iran alliance is distinctive. Islamic republic’s great challenge targets Israel to wipe out from the map. Turkish-Israeli cold winter may reflect an illusion in this context. Why Turkish classical alignment with Israel lives a break. A probabl Israeli-Iranian clash would clarify crossroads for regional countries and Turkey.
Iran is going ahead on her own road map. So Turkish efforts to appease Iran is useless. Why Islamic Republic’s own agenda does not let a Western approach in the Middle East.





REFERENCE
Books:

Davutoğlu Ahmet, Stratejik Derinlik, Küre Yayınları, 32. Baskı, İstanbul, 2009.

Maloney Suzanna, Iran's Long Reach: Iran as a Pivotal State in the Muslim World (Pivotal State Series), USIP Pres Books, Washington D.C., October 2008.

Gold Dore, The Rise of Nuclear Iran: How Tehran Defies the West, Regnery Publishing Inc, Washington D.C., 2009.

Internet Resources:

Heinrich Mark, "IAEA votes to censure Iran over nuclear cover-up", Reuters, November 27, 2009.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5AQ1BZ20091127?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=11621

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2550821720090925?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=11604

Spetalnick Matt and Heinrich Mark, "Western leaders warn Iran over nuclear site", Reuters, September 25, 2009.

Reuters, "FACTBOX: Iran's missiles and recent tests", December 16, 2009.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BF2OR20091216.


Reuters, "U.S. to send ambassador to Syria after four-year hiatus", Haaretz, June 24, 2009.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1095268.html