"VALENTINE DAY" IN LEBANON

Today, in many where, St.Valentine Day is commemorated between lovers. It is also called as "lovers day". But our subject is not Valentine Day.
5 years ago, Lebanon PM Rafik Hariri was assassinated in Beirut. Syria was blamed about killing. Syrian administration rejected the allegations. However Syria has withdrawn her troops after the assassination from Lebanon. As it was remembered in UN reports Syria was blamed about the Hariri assassination and there was a heavy pressure on Syria.

BBC News, "New Hariri report 'blames Syria'", December 11, 2005. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4519346.stm

Syria-Iran alliance's main exercise area is Lebanon and as we have stated before, Hizballah's existence was resourced by the alliance.
New cabinet in Lebanon was founded by Rafik Hariri's son Saad Hariri.Saad Hariri won the elections in June 2009 with March 14 coalition. The other name of the coalition is Cedar Coalition. Saad Hariri is pro western just like his father. Saudi-US common aproach supports Hariri. Hariri's pro western Sunni axis meet with moderate forces in Lebanon.
Hariri became PM in Lebanon in November 2009. In spite of the political clashes Hariri invited Hizballah into his cabinet. Hizballah is sharing the government with two ministers but they are also main opposition. Hariri's seats' were enough about forming the govenment without Hizballah but he has included Hizballah in the context of keeping the territorial and national integrity.
In May 2008, Hizballah captured Beirut and also invaded Hariri's buildings. After 1990 Taif accord, armed groups has left their arms in Lebanon except Hizballah. Hizballah fougth against Israel especially in Southern Lebanon. Israel ended her invasion in 2000. So currently Hizballah is "state within a state" in Lebanon.
Saad Hariri had blamed Syria about his father's assassination. However he visited Syrian president Assad after he became PM. Hariri is trying to keep balances in his country. Different balances mean different foreign political interventions and collaborators.
Hariri preferred to underline Israeli threat on his political agenda why it can be concerned as a common ground with the different political fractions. And he stated that, "if Israeli-Hizballah conflict occur,we will support Hizballah in the name of our land's defense."

Hana Levi Julian, "Lebanese Gov't Officially Backs Hizbullah Terrorist Group", Arutz Sheva.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/135946

It means to give up nation state structure and Hizballah's power related "state within a state". Lebanon government unofficially agreed Hizballah's armed body and political entity. Or Hariri's admininistration had to recognize Hizballah's tangible political-militarily sovereignty.
Today's demonstrations about Hariri assassination in Lebanon is very significant. Hariri's son is PM during the anniversary. He has emphasized "March 14 coalition still exist".

AFP, "Lebanon marks fifth anniversary of Hariri assassination", France 24. http://www.france24.com/en/20100214-lebanon-marks-fifth-anniversary-hariri-assassination-march-14-syria

Any clashes with Israel would empower Hizballah in the country. Hizballah's main ally Iran in under pressure about "nuclear issue".
So Hizballah's political support can realize with a new clash.
Hariri's situation seems very problematic.
He gives compromises to Hizballah and Syria-Iran alliance to maintain his cabinet's existence.
Syria has some developments to progress her relations with US and Western powers. Syria's consultations with US sustains from September 2008 meeting which US Secreatary of State Rice and Syrian foreign minister Muallim attended. Obama administration in US is sending new ambassador to Syria after 2005. Syrian-Israeli indirect negotiations sustained until December 2008 under Turkish facilitating.
Jumblatt who is the leader of Druze's Lebanon criticized Assad and Syria several times but he approaches Syria just before.
February 14, 2010 is an effort for March 14 to show their massive ground. On the other hand Hizballah's current structure is a main barrier to keep Lebanon's integrity.