10 Şubat 2010 Çarşamba

IRAN: TO A MIDDLE EASTERN CHAOS?...

World public opinion concerns Iran issue intensively for the last years. Especially suspicions on Iran to make "nuclear weapon" is discussed. Generally two different approaches about Iran's nuclear program. One of the idea tries to underline Iran's nuclear enery right. The other approach to allegate Iran's nuclear program does not target to use nuclear energy. It is only an illusion. Islamic republic covers her real goal to have nuclear weapon.
In fact, nuclear program became a prestige subject for Iran. We can remember last Iranian elections which was held in June 2009. The opposition rejected the conclusions and demonstrations contiuned for the weeks.
On the other hand, "to have nuclear weapon" is an instrument for Iran's foreign policy.
Iran's challenge deploys from the Eastern Mediterranean to Persian Gulf. Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza are the parts of Iran's main policies. We can underline these militant organisations as "proxy forces" of Iran. Iran disturbs Israel with the fundamental Islamic elements, also gain popularity in the Middle East geography. And we must note that, Iran does not only invest Shia parties but also radical Sunni organs like Hamas.
Hamas and Hizballah founded their entities in Gaza and Lebanon. Southern Iraq became an Iran's sub influence area. Yemen's militants are so important, they clash with Yemen and Saudi Arabia. In this context Iran could reach Eden.
Iran's main infrastructure gain her moving point from Syria. Syria-Iran alliance keep cooperation to feed Hizballah-Hamas. Iran-Syria alliance stands versus pro western Sunni Arab countries.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon (PM) and Egypt draw pro western Sunni Axis.
Iran started her "uranium enrichment plan" Tuesday. (February 9) There are two different evaulations about Iran's challenge. One of them it is only a bargaining method for Iran, the other is to enter cul-de-sac.
Iran's administration is living a legitimacy problem. So Iran became more agressive. However, the most wondered question includes if there is a cost benefit analyse.
Turkey's situation is very problematic. Iran is Turkey's neighbor, US is her ally. And Turkey has main ties with West. Also member of NATO.
Turkey's balance sustained until current environment.
Suppose, if Iran-US conflict occurres, how EU, NATO, US allies would behave. Support US or Iran?
The question is ironic. So I repeat to ask the same question to Turkey.
That is the cross road for Turkish Foreign Policy in the post cold war era.
Pro Islamic government in Turkey uses anti Israeli or pro Iranian discourse, but Turkey's main route related with the Western axis economicaly, militarily and politicaly. Turkish-US relations is sustainable and AKP government awares it. AKP maintains relations with US strongly.
Turkey's efforts to develop ties with Syria is not against West why US supports the policy to isolate Iran.
Iran's last decision could be a starting point of the Middle Eastern chaos.
Turkey's behavior will be the key reason to prevent conflict or to live the armed conflict.
Turkey's neutral situation is coming to a decision making time.

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