15 Ocak 2010 Cuma

3rd LEBANON WAR?

Hizballah's leader Hassan Nasrallah challenged to change "region's face".

AFP, "Nasrallah: War will change region's face", ynetnews.com, January 15, 2010.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3834933,00.html

He means a new Middle East order. As far as to be understood, Nasrallah indicates "pro-Iranian regional hegemony". Iran's regional targets can be evaulated with these outlines:
- Eleminate pro American Sunni Arab regimes
- Make efforts into Turkey to be neutralized
- Wipe off Israel from the map
- Build nuclear weapon
- Strenghen alliance with Syria
- Develop ties with Russia
- Defeat US troops and US influence in the Middle East
- Convert Palestine as a Hamasistan
- Convert Lebanon as a Hizballahistan
- Found a Shia state in Iraq
- Found a Shia region in Saudi Arabia
- Found an Iranian dominance in Yemen

At the same time 3rd Lebanon War is considered. According to Al- Jazeerah Turkish PM urged Israel not to violate Lebanon airspace.

Al- Jazeerah, "Erdogan slams Israel for violating Lebanese airspace", January 12, 2010.
http://www.aljazeerah.info/News/2010/January/12%20n/Erdogan%20slams%20Israel%20for%20violating%20Lebanese%20airspace,%20bombing%20Gaza.htm

Nasrallah's approach does not include an Israeli attack but to realize a fundamental change in the region. Iran's challenges from Gulf to Eastern Mediterranean object to refine Western extensions in her own periphery.
But the main contradiction for Turkey, a potential Iranian attraction would also damage Turkish benefits. Not only to build a nuclear weapon but also post invasion process in Iraq, would emerge a Turkish-Iranian competition. We can emphasize that, Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq will have intensive economic-political relations with Turkey under US supervisory. However Southern Iraq's position is evaulated with Iran.
Also Turkey's membership to NATO, EU accession process and to be US ally encumber Turkish state some regional perspectives. It does not mean for Turkey to break relations with her neighbors. But main commitments are also determiners of Turkish Foreign Policy.
Meanwhile Turkish approach to Israel seems pesimistic in these days. Even though US aspect provides at least alignment for both of the countries plus moderate Arab regimes.
There is a crossroad for the Middle East. Hamas-Hizballah cooperation is perceived as an Iranian proxy forces' siege to Israel. The gamble for Iran is related her declared strategy: "Wipe off Israel from the map."
It also seems to be prepared a compherensive attack against Israel by Iran and her allies. The probabl situation would endanger pro American Arab regimes and in spite of current government's approach Turkey.
Regional catastrophe risk stays on the table.

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