AT LAST, ERDOGAN ACHIEVED TO CLASH WITH ISRAEL....

Recent events about Turkey seem very pesimistic. One of them occurred in Iskenderun. Iskenderun naval base was striked by PKK terror organization. Unfortunately, 7 Turkish soldiers were killed by rockets.
On the other hand, international aid flotilla to Gaza, was intervened by Israeli commandos. 16 activist were killed -at least according to international news agencies-. And among the dead activist, Turkish citizens exist. And the ship which was intervened belong to Turkey.
In order to understand current situation of bilateral relations, we must analyze some developments.
As it is known, Turkish PM, used an anti-Israeli discourse since January 2009 which was called -one minute polemic.-
Drill crisis, serie crisis, lower sofa crisis were lived in the year of 2009. And at last "flotilla crisis" has come in May 2010.
First time, blood was considered for bilateral relations.
Israeli intervention caused killings. However, "flotilla route" was scheduled clearly and announced to world's public opinion. Expectation converted to a reality.
To destroy Israeli blockade on Gaza, was very attractive.
But the score is a great problem.
We are questioning the Turkish Foreign Policy "...to shift away from the Western axis." for a long time.
Israeli intervention must be critiziced hardly. But on the other hand, AKP government is reaching a target, -to break relations with Israel-.
Turkish attitude in UN Security Council about Iran and to support only Hamas in Palestine and to exclude Fatah is significant.
We wonder the next step from Erdogan...

US IS FIGHTHING WITH ANTI SANCTIONS APPROACH TO IRAN...

What an interesting situation..
US seems to persuade Russia and China for applying sanctions into Iran about nuclear facilities. Both of them are permanent members of UN Security Council like US.
On the other hand, some temporary members of Security Council attempt to blockade sanctions on Iran.
Brazil and Turkey are significant..
But especially Turkey why she is ally of US, member of NATO and in EU accession process.
US Secretary of State telling to Turkish FM Davutoğlu that "Iran is not serious about accepting international demands to prove its nuclear program peaceful. She said Tehran must face fresh penalties unless it does a quick about-face and complies."

Matthew Lee, "US tries to blunt Iran anti-sanctions push", Associated Press Writer, Tulsa World, May 13, 2010. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_US_IRAN_SANCTIONS?SITE=OKTUL&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Turkish Foreign Policy has some suspicions on herself why there is a perception that she is shifting away from the West. Turkish approach to Iran is very problematic.
It is just like an "appeasement policy" on Iran's nuclear efforts.
What will Turkey do to a potential sanction resolution draft in Security Council?
Turkey's aim to be a facilitator or mediator between Iran and US? It is not realistic.
Turkish anti Israeli discourse has an ideological content. It targets to draw a spectacle periphery but includes contradictons. Arab countries and Iran has not a common axis. Anti Israeli propaganda can create an attraction on Turkish PM.
However, Arab regimes and Iran do not have a similar approach. Iran's nuclear efforts also distur Arabs.
So what is the construction of AKP's foreign policy..
To sustain relations with US, to appease Iran, to develop relations with Russia and to be leader of Arabs in spite of pro Iranian approach..
This is a dead end.
And has not a tangible future..

ERDOGAN: "MAIN THREAT IS ISRAEL"

In Paris, there was an interesting meeting. Turkish PM Erdogan visited French president Sarkozy. After his meeting with Sarkozy, Erdogan made some comments about Turkish-French relations. Meanwhile, Sarkozy accepted to come to Turkey as an official visiting.
But the significant point of Turkish PM's to the media was related Israel. He has blamed Israel about Operation Cast Lead again and he repeated his condemnation. Erdogan insisted that "Israel's reasons are not valid" like his previous declarations.
Recently, he had a polemic with Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman why Lieberman told "Erdogan behaves like Gaddafi". He responded that "Lieberman (that man) is not my counterpart."
Erdogan's most intensive and radical challenge occurred in Paris.
He allegated that, "Israel is main threat to Midddle East Peace." As it is known, there is a campaign against Israel about Middle East Peace Process. US president Obama lived a high tension with Israeli PM Netenyahu. US has urged Israel to conform new Middle East Peace Process. Israel was especially concerned to make new settlements in West Bank and Jerusalem.
Also Jordan King Abdullah who is the one of Obama's good friend declared his approach to Israel. According to him, Israel can not be trusted for new attempts which target to reach Peace Process in the Middle East.
However Turkish PM's prospect to Israel becomes more radical in each step. Turkey's status quo in the Western axis contradicts with Erdogan's aspects.
Turkey and Israel are allies of US. Both of the countries has relations since 1949 with each other. Turkey is the first country recognized Israel in 1949 which has a Muslim majority population and was unique until 1978. Why Turkey took place in Western bloc and constructively secular.
Currently there are problems in the Middle East. Israel's cabinet has paradoxes in the Peace Process and Palestine problem. Extremist elements in Israeli cabinet also create problems for Israel's foreign policy.
On the other hand, Turkish PM's two different statements reflect his real aims. He told recently "my dear friend Ahmedinejad" in one of his speech and the last declaration he challenged "Israel is the main threat in the region."
Turkey as it is known-NATO member and US ally country- and her PM prefers Iran in the Middle East and stated Israel as a "main threat." Beside US, EU has an appeasement policy on Iran.Pro islamic cabinet in Turkey uses the process.
If it is calculated, "more conservative Turkey" would clash with the Western axis in the long term. Erdogan also praises Hamas and Hizballah in the region.
Now, EU accession process is used to eleminate secular republic in Turkey. AKP's aim to support Iran ironically shows EU's political investments in Turkey. Also Obama's administration would not get Turkey's vote in UN Security Council.
Western countries can think now.
"Turkey Quo Vadis"

ERDOGAN'S CHALLENGE IN ARAB LEAGUE

Turkish PM Erdogan challenged to Israel during Arab League which is being held in Libya's city of Sirte.
Erdogan specially urges Israel for new settlements in Jerusalem, to give up announcing Jerusalem as united capital and declare tombs in east Jerusalem as Israeli cultural heritage. Turkish PM also stated that, Islamic countries never recognize Jerusalem as Israel's united capital. According to him, Israeli policies can be evaulated with the "madness" word.
Turkish pro Islamic government is living problems in domestic policies. New constitution offer to be rejected by opposition parties, trade unions and some NGO's. However, AKP tried to describe new offers as EU democratization process to Turkish public opinion. Plus, used "referendum tool" to press opposition. But the fact about new offers is clearly known, to press secular high judiciary. Despite AKP's plans, opinion polls show, new constitutional changes can be rejected with a 61% majority. Beside the situation, some of AKP's MP's, started to declare their negative attitudes to new offers.
In this context, pro Islamic government, applies foreign policy to gain new votes in Turkey. Neo Ottoman approach generally is concerned about AKP's propaganda.
Erdogan's anti Israel discourse is parallel with Obama's administration in US. Even though, there is a cold ambiance with Turkey and US related Armenian resolution from US Congress (House of Representatives International Relations Committee).
Turkish PM uses the high tension between US-Israel governments. Obama's behaviour to Israeli PM during Netenyahu's White House visiting, reinforced the process.
New Middle East peace process is encouraged by Obama, but Israeli government's policies and resolutions break US president's plans.
The important point, Arab League's general secretary Amr Moussa, urged Arab countries about Iran's efforts to make nuclear weapon. And Arab League is preparing a regional iniatative which would include non Arab countries (Turkey and Iran)
Erdogan's challenge is intensively related AKP's political situation. His approach to nuclear Iran, can be observed in his discourse.
But application is sensitive. If Turkey does not conform any UN sanctions or US demands to nuclear Iran, there can be constructional problems with her allies. So Erdogan's policy to Iran seems to be harder than to Israel.

ISRAEL-US TENSION

The year of 2009, became new administrations' taking office in US and Israel. Barack Obama started his presidency in January 20, 2009. In Israel; February 10, 2009 elections created a coalition environment as usual. Kadima concluded the race as a first party, on the other hand Likud raised her votes. Likud was fourth party in 2006, but in 2009 deployed as a second party.
Tzipi Livni who was the foreign minister and chairwoman of Kadima, was more popular than Netenyahu in the Western countries. However, Netenyahu founded the new government with far Right parties plus Labor Party.
Israel Beytinu's leader Lieberman was deputy PM about strategic relations in Olmert's cabinet, he was appointed as a new foreign minister in Netenyahu's government. Ehud Barak who is the leader of Labor Party kept his situation as a defense minister in new administration.
Obama seemed closer with Islamic world and there were suspicions on him from neo cons in US and Israel. Despite Obama's reason, Netenyahu's government used more radical discourse than Olmert. Middle East Peace Process was suspended in new era and Annapolis Peace Process was forgotten.
Netenyahu government has taken a base from previous cabinet with Operation Cast Lead. And preferred to freeze the peace process.
Netenyahu supported new settlements in West Bank. Recently Israel's interior minister announced new 1600 buildings in West Bank during US Vice President Biden's visiting to Israel. It raised the tension for bilateral relations.
Beside these developments, Israel announced about two tombs to belong to Israel's cultural heritage and opened a historical synagogue just near Al Aksa mosque.
Netenyahu has declared several times, "an independent Palestine air space would be controlled by Israel, West Bank-Jordan border would be defended by IDF.
And also rejects to negotiate Jerusalem's situation and refugees returning to Palestine.
The photograph weakened Fatah in West Bank and strenghened Hamas' position in Gaza Strip.
But there is a point which must not be forgotten. It is Iran.
Iran's nuclear program could shake the regions' balances. US does not want a possible Israel's unilateral intervention to Iran. However, underlines Iran's situation and running the anti Iran campaign about nuclear Iran.
Iran is the key of US-Israeli relations and the Middle East's future.

WHAT IS GOING ON "IN TURKEY"?

Recently, there are some articles on Turkey's political chaos. Especially, Soner Çağaptay and Daniel Pipes' comments reflected the situation about Turkey. Newsweek underlined Turkey's reason as "army is beaten" statement.
In fact, "what is going on in Turkey?"
From 1999, Turkey became an offical candidate for EU membership. Consequently, EU accession process started for Turkey. It means new EU adoption applications began to form Turkish politics.
Bülent Ecevit was the PM during the event. Turkey has lived a convulsive economic crisis in 2001. And "transition program to substantial economy was concerned." It meant that, a very hard economic-social policy against middle and lower classes. Why financial balances and public depth were alarmed. And new program came to agenda with IMF stand-by agreement. Kemal Derviş who was the vice chairman of World Bank was appointed to deputy PM about economic relations.
So, hard program was applicated successfully however middle and lower classes declined with coalition government.
On November 3 2002, Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the elections and gained 34% of votes.
AKP was fragmented from Milli Görüş movement. In February 28, 1997 Turkish army pressed for a radical change in National Security Council about National Security Policy Paper. Reactionism (irtica) means religious fundamentalism as a main threat for national security beside ethnic seperatism.
Necmettin Erbakan was the PM and chairman of Welfare Party (RP). Turkish Armed Forces intervened to the politics indirectly. Briefings to the media and high judicial instutions was given by Turkish army about irtica.
Erbakan had to resign from PM in June 1997. And was banned from politics. Erbakan's opposition in RP, started a challenge why he has fought with the West. Firstly "innovators" in Virtue Party challenged to Erbakan's approach which was founded instead of RP and determined a candidate for leadership. He was Abdullah Gül. FP gained 15% in 1999. And was the main opposition. FP was closed in 2001. Erbakan's friends continued with Felicity Party (SP). But Erdoğan's political team deployed in Justice and Development Party (AKP). Erdoğan was the charismatic mayor of Istanbul and was prisoned about a poem in 1998. He was punished for 3 months and became the other "banned leader". Supported Gül in FP.
At last, AKP was founded in 2001, in 2002 elections Erdoğan couldn't become a candidate for MP. Republican People's Party cooperated with AKP for constitutional change and Erdoğan was elected in mid-term elections as MP and founded new government in 2003 after Gül. The time was after March 1 crisis. Turkish parliament rejected US' demands for using Turkish territory for invading Iraq.
July 4, 2003 "sack crisis" was an another step about Turkish-US crisis. It was the operation to Turkish soldiers from US soldiers in Northern Iraq. Despite crisis, Bush administration collaboreted with AKP government in the name of "Moderate Islam".
US planned Turkish pro Islamic government to be ahead on pro western Arab regimes such as Lebanon, Jordan and the others.
AKP used first term (2002-2007) with EU plus IMF anchor. EU process eventually changed army's situation in Turkey. On the other hand, AKP manipulated the reason for her benefits. Army's role in politics is not resourced only from Republican or Ottoman history. It was about 2218 years. Turkish state tradition began with founding the army.
Some commenters concern only Republican process. Founder of Turkey Republic Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and his friends were mostly officers. Atatürk preferred a modern state after National Liberation War. Main target was to reach democracy. After Atatürk, in 1946 Turkey passed to multi party system, it indicated Turkey to be deployed in the Western axis.
In Cold War era, Turkish army realized 3 coups and February 28. Interventions were parallel with US foreign policies.
AKP also has some ultra liberals supports. But the main contradiction, AKP's objection to found a new society. Some ultra liberal elites do not care the situation. September 12 1980 military coup pressed the leftists but to strength religious groups against communism. It was about green belt policy with parallel US, just like Pakistan's Ul Hak. General Ul Hak and General Evren behaved similar. Both of them gave compromises to religious policies. Fethullah Gülen bargained with General Evren to determine his supporter's to vote to the new constitution.
AKP, reversed its second term without EU anchor. After Bush, Obama concerned "model partnership" during his visit to Turkey. He has demanded Armenian and Kurdish openings from Turkish government.
AKP's second term sustained more agressively. Turkish PM Erdoğan challenged to Israeli president Peres to criticize Operation Cast Lead in January 2009. But Turkey was facilitator until December 2008 between Israel and Syria.
From June 2007, Ergenekon case caused several arrests of academicians, officers. Balyoz case, arrested top military officials in February 2010.
AKP is fighting with army and high judiciary.
2011 elections is the main cornerstone for new plans. AKP expects to change the constitution in the context of EU, but main agenda includes to convert to parliamentary system to presidency system. New system's content can be completed with a new Middle East Federation which would give up nation state, secularism and Turkishness and to build an infrastructure as Muslim brotherhood. Moderate or radical Islam?
The main problem is Iran. AKP tries to get a balance among US and Iran. And new cooperation in Northern Iraq, underlines Sunni Muslim brotherhood. It could be against Iran's Shia position.
If we summarize, Turkey was used as a labaratory by Western powers. Currently, I read some evaulations as "Turkey is shifting away from the West."
Anticommunism feeded fundamentalist and antisecular movements during the Cold War.
Solution is nor militar neither civil dictatorships.
Turkey's NATO membership, EU accession process and membership to European Council stays on the table. Relations with Russia, China or regional countries is natural in post cold war era. But not an alternative to the Western axis for Turkey. Graham Fuller's approach is not substantial and he praises Fethullah Gülen. His book which is called New Turkey Republic declares the real agenda which is related to build more conservative and antiwestern society.
In spite of the situation, AKP government has intensive relations with US.
An antiwestern infrastructure and pro western superstructure.
Is it realistic?

TRILATERAL SUMMIT IN SYRIA...

Last nigth, there was an interesting dinner in Damascus. Iran's president Ahmedinejad, Hizballah's leader Nasrallah were hosted by Syria's president Assad.
Iran and Syria abolished visa application with each others. And both of the leaders teased US Secretary of State's statements about Syria. Hillary Clinton urged Syria to move away from Iran. Their respond to Clinton to cancel visas.

The Jerusalem Post, "Trilateral meeting in Damascus", February 26, 2010. http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=169748

As it is known, US opened her embassy in Syria after 2005 assassination to Rafik Hariri who was PM of Lebanon. Why Syria was blamed about the attack.
Syrian-US relations developed since September 2008. US Secretary of State (Rice) and Syrian Foreign Minister Muallim attended the meetings between two countries' delegations in New York. New US administration sent two delegations plus Obama's special envoy Mitchell to Assad. And as it was underlined, US decided to re-open her embassy in Damascus. Also US encouraged Turkey to develop ties with Syria.
All these efforts by US seems to be closer with Syria. It's meaning to isolate Iran in the Middle East. Syria's approach to US, is not clear. Syria prefers to keep her alliance with Iran. Syrian-Iranian alliance sustains since 1980's. Hizballah in Lebanon is the tangible outcome of the alliance. Beside Lebanon's situation, Syria-Iran associates in Gaza. Their collaborator in Gaza is Hamas. Hamas' leader Mashal lives in Syria.
In spite of being closer with US, Syria does not give up her alliance with Iran. Sometimes Syria uses the multilateral relations as a bargaining tool in the region. But this policy has a risk potential for Syria and the all region.
Syria and Iran declared a Middle East without Israel and US. It can be commented bilateral alliance would fight against Western axis in the near region. Syrian-Iranian axis also target Arab regimes. The critical point is Lebanon. Lebanon's pro western PM Saad Hariri, agreed Hizballah's militant power against Israel. It can be decoded Hariri does not only share coalition government with Hizballah but also agrees to share state of Lebanon's sovereignty. Why Nasrallah who is the leader of Hizballah's existence is significant in Ahmedinejad-Assad summit.
If Lebanon can be converted as a Hizballahistan, it would a model to Arab world despite sectarian differences. Shia crescent's extension and main front is Lebanon.
Secondly, Iran's challenge to produce nuclear weapon would also create a pressure on Arab states.
Thirdly, Iran uses neighborhood relations on Turkey which is US ally and member of NATO. At least Iran tries Turkey to be neutral any further conflicts between Iran and Western forces plus Israel.
Fourth item about Iran to develop ties with Russia and China. Iran is currently an observer member of Shangai Cooperation Organisation. Beside the affiliation Iran has relations in Southern America. Venezuela is an important example of it. Venezuelan leader showed his support to Ahmedinejad several times. Iran attempts to be a part of anti Western world and achieves. It's tangible scores can be perceived in UN.
Global leader US and so called regional leader Iran would clash one day?
But Iran develops her process in each day. Iran aims to blockade Israel with Syria, Hizballah and Hamas.
Syrian-Iranian axis challenged with "trilateral summit" against US,Israel, Arab states and Western countries.
It has a potential for further conflict risks. And Turkey's situation is so critical about US-Iran clash. US raises her pressure on Turkey why US and Turkey are allies.
Turkish administration's calculations must be rational.